Executive Summary
After reaching multi-month lows in early June due to positive crop expectations, global coffee prices staged a sharp reversal. Over June 10–11, 2026, Robusta coffee prices surged, with ICE London Robusta futures gaining +3.19% (+$107) in a single session to hit 1-week highs. This rally was triggered by two primary factors: the confirmation of an El Niño weather pattern by the Japan Meteorological Agency and persistent rainfall in Brazil delaying its harvest.
For the Vietnamese market, these developments have halted the downward price cycle. Farm-gate prices in the Central Highlands responded immediately, rebounding to 88,500–90,000 VND/kg (~$3,400–3,460/ton), while spot premiums for premium grade-one Robusta remain elevated.
Current Price Snapshot (June 12, 2026)
| Metric | Price | Change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam Robusta (farm-gate) | 88,500–90,000 VND/kg | +1,700 VND/kg | Central Highlands (Lam Dong, Dak Nong) |
| London Robusta Futures (Jul ‘26) | $3,460/ton | +3.19% (+$107) on June 11 | ICE London |
| New York Arabica Futures (Jul ‘26) | 254.00 ¢/lb | +2.17% (+$5.40) on June 11 | ICE New York |
| Certified Robusta Stocks | 3,713 lots | Near 2-year low (3,631 lots) | ICE Warehouse |
| Screen 16/18 Spot Premiums | +$250–300/ton | Stable / firming | FOB Ho Chi Minh |
Key Market Drivers
1. Meteorological Confirmation of El Niño
On Wednesday, June 10, the Japan Meteorological Agency officially confirmed the formation of an El Niño weather pattern across the equatorial Pacific. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) followed with estimates of a 67% probability of a “Super El Niño” this year, which could become the strongest on record.
- Impact on Brazil: El Niño threatens to delay the crucial spring rains in Brazil during September and October—the window when coffee tree flowering occurs. This creates significant risk for Brazil’s 2026/27 crop.
- Impact on Asia: For Vietnam and Indonesia, El Niño typically translates to drier-than-normal conditions, threatening the development of cherries for subsequent harvests.
2. Heavy Rainfall Delays Brazil’s Harvest
While long-term worries center on El Niño, immediate supply tightness is driven by weather in South America. Meteorological forecaster Vaisala reported moderate to heavy rainfall across Brazil’s key coffee-growing regions. These showers are expected to delay harvest progress and drying operations through mid-June, forcing short sellers on ICE London and New York to aggressively cover their positions.
3. Record-Low Inventories Fuel Volatility
Exchange-certified inventories offer no buffer against these weather shocks:
- Robusta: ICE robusta stocks dropped to a 2-year low of 3,631 lots in mid-May and stand only marginally higher at 3,713 lots today.
- Arabica: ICE arabica inventories fell to a 6.5-month low of 402,709 bags this week. Importers are finding that the physical availability of certifiable coffee is extremely tight, sustaining spot premiums even when futures fluctuate.
4. Vietnam’s Strong Exports Facing Depletion
Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that coffee exports from January to May 2026 rose by +7.9% y/y to 922,000 MT, following a record-breaking 2025 where exports reached 1.58 MMT (+17.5% y/y).
While USDA FAS projects Vietnam’s 2025/26 crop at a 4-year high of 30.8 million bags (+6.2% y/y), the rapid export pace in the first five months of the year means that domestic carry-over stocks are drying up. Importers seeking spot containers for Q3 will face limited domestic availability before the next harvest commences in November.
Price Forecast — Q3/Q4 2026
| Timeframe | VND/kg Range | USD/ton (approx.) | Trend | Key Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June–July 2026 | 85,000–92,000 | ~$3,250–3,520 | ↔ Volatile / Sideways | Brazil rain extensions vs. harvest catch-up |
| August–September 2026 | 88,000–96,000 | ~$3,375–3,680 | ⬆ Mild Rise | Spot inventory depletion in Vietnam |
| October–December 2026 | 92,000–105,000 | ~$3,520–4,020 | ⬆ Potential Spike | La Niña rain risks during Vietnam harvest + El Niño flowering impact |
Supply Chain Risks & Friction Points
- Shipping Costs and Strait of Hormuz Closure: The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt shipping lanes, leading to higher insurance surcharges, elevated container freight rates, and delayed transit times to Europe and the US.
- Input Costs: Fertilizer and fuel prices remain high due to trade route diversions, keeping the floor price of production elevated for farmers at approximately 35,000–40,000 VND/kg.
- Quality Variations: Heavy rains during the transition to La Niña could affect the drying process of late-harvest cherries, meaning high-quality, mold-free S18 green beans will carry a higher premium.
Actionable Strategy for Coffee Importers
- Cover Q3/Q4 Volume Early: With Vietnam’s domestic stocks depleted from early-year export rushes and Brazil experiencing short-term harvest delays, waiting for cheaper spot prices in August is a risky strategy.
- Lock in Premiums: Spot premiums for Screen 18, wet-polished, color-sorted Vietnamese Robusta are holding firm at +$250–300/ton. Securing physical allocations with fixed premiums protects against futures market spikes.
- Monitor September Flowering: Keep a close eye on Brazil’s rainfall in late Q3. If El Niño delays the flowering rains, Robusta prices could easily re-test the $4,500/ton ceiling on ICE London.
How GreenTech Helps Importers Secure Supply
In a volatile market where exchange stocks are at 10-year lows and weather patterns are shifting rapidly, GreenTech provides supply certainty:
- Direct Farm-Gate Integration: We source directly from contracted farms in Lam Dong and Dak Nong, bypass spot aggregators, and maintain a processing capacity of 500 MT/month. Our contract delivery rate remains 100% even during supply crunches.
- Verified Grade Specifications: We offer Screen 16 and Screen 18 color-sorted, double-polished green Robusta with certified quality standards. Spot check our quality with a free 1–2 kg sample (importers cover shipping costs only).
- Full Regulatory Compliance: We handle all GACC registrations, Phytosanitary certificates, ISO 22000:2018 standards, and C/O Form B.
- Payment Flexibility: Secure your shipments with flexible transaction processing through legally registered entities in both Vietnam and Hong Kong.
Contact our export desk today to secure firm FOB/EXW quotes for your specific Q3 and Q4 shipment windows.
