Executive Summary
Vietnam enters October 2026 as the Central Highlands harvest starts. On 25 September, raw Robusta farm-gate printed 92,200–93,000 VND/kg across Đắk Nông, Đắk Lắk, Gia Lai, and Lâm Đồng (giacaphe.com, via Báo Quốc Tế). At that report’s rate of 25,790 VND per dollar, the range is about $3,575–$3,606/MT before grading, inland freight, and export margin.
ICE Europe Robusta November 2026 closed at $3,290/MT, with January 2027 at $3,272/MT and March 2027 at $3,260/MT. ICE US Coffee C December 2026 closed at 275.35 ¢/lb. The same article later prints the November robusta close at $3,298/MT. This report uses the lead figure, $3,290.
FAQ Grade 2 and Screen 18 FOB Cat Lai are quoted with the offer. This snapshot does not publish an export band.
The sourcing question is unchanged in shape and different in level: buy the prompt gap, reserve the new-crop grade, and do not treat a $30 London backwardation as a reason to wait.
Market Snapshot — 25 September 2026
| Metric | Indicative Level | Commercial Interpretation | Source |
|---|
| Farm-gate, Đắk Nông | 93,000 VND/kg | Highest of the four provincial prints. Up 1,000 on the day. | giacaphe.com via Báo Quốc Tế, 25 Sep 2026 |
| Farm-gate, Đắk Lắk | 92,800 VND/kg | Up 1,000 on the day. | giacaphe.com via Báo Quốc Tế, 25 Sep 2026 |
| Farm-gate, Gia Lai | 92,800 VND/kg | Up 1,000 on the day. | giacaphe.com via Báo Quốc Tế, 25 Sep 2026 |
| Farm-gate, Lâm Đồng | 92,200 VND/kg | Lowest print. Đà Lạt is the wet drying outlier this fortnight. | giacaphe.com via Báo Quốc Tế, 25 Sep 2026 |
| FAQ G2 and Screen 18, FOB Cat Lai | Quoted with the offer | Export price depends on grade, traceability, and shipment month. | GreenTech offer, at the time of enquiry |
| ICE Robusta, Nov 2026 | $3,290 / MT | Down $27 on the session. Lead close in the source. | Báo Quốc Tế, 25 Sep 2026, for the 24 Sep session |
| ICE Robusta, Jan / Mar 2027 | $3,272 / $3,260 / MT | About $30/MT from November to March. | Báo Quốc Tế, 25 Sep 2026 |
| ICE Coffee C, Dec 2026 | 275.35 ¢/lb | March 2027 printed 267.70 ¢/lb in the same report. | Báo Quốc Tế, 25 Sep 2026 |
| Vietnam exports, Jan–Aug 2026 | Nearly 1.7 million tonnes, over $6 billion | Volume up more than 10% year on year. Value down 11.2% on lower prices. | VICOFA via SGGP |
| ENSO | El Niño Advisory | Greater than 90% chance of a very strong event in fall and winter 2026–27. 75% chance the October–December index reaches +2.5°C or more. | NOAA CPC, September 2026 |
Farm-gate prices are raw purchase prints. They are not an FOB offer.
What Changed From the Pre-Harvest Market
London is at a three-and-a-half-month low in the Báo Quốc Tế account, and Central Highlands buying still printed near 93,000 VND/kg. That report reads the gap as exporters covering sold contracts while farmer offers stay limited.
Brazil is the cap on futures. Conab’s 2026 crop is 67.6 million 60-kg bags, 99% harvested. Arabica was raised to 48.2 million bags. Robusta was cut to 19.4 million bags, down 6.6% on 2025. The same account cites a weaker real and ICE Robusta stocks at a 10-month high (Báo Quốc Tế, citing Conab, 25 September 2026).
New-crop containers from this harvest still have to be picked, dried, milled, and shipped. Plan on about 35–45 days of ocean transit via the Cape of Good Hope. Coffee bought for October shipment is a bridge into early 2027 arrivals, not a substitute for a December vessel.
How the weather forecast is used
On 25 September the desk read ECMWF for five coffee points: Buôn Ma Thuột (Đắk Lắk), Pleiku (Gia Lai), Gia Nghĩa (Đắk Nông), Kon Tum, and Đà Lạt (Lâm Đồng). The forecast is not turned into a crop size. It is scored against the stage the trees are in, and that score changes the offer.
A wet day means 5 mm or more.
| Horizon | Crop stage | Negative | Positive | Watch |
|---|
| Next 14 days | Harvest drying | 8 or more wet days, or 120 mm or more. Cherry and patio drying are at risk. | 4 or fewer wet days, and under 80 mm. Picking and sun-drying can proceed. | Between those lines. Start harvest, and cover the yards on wet days. |
| October–December | Harvest drying, seasonal | Two or more of those months are 30 mm or more wetter than the model normal. | Two or more are 30 mm or more drier, and none are 30 mm or more wetter. Easier drying. Not a larger crop. | No shared dry or wet lean. |
| January–March 2027 | Flowering for the next crop | Two months at least 2°C warmer and 20 mm or more drier. That can tighten the following crop. | — | Two months at least 1.5°C warmer and drier. Re-check. Do not price a crop loss. |
Next 14 days — what the forecast printed
| Origin | Rain | Wet days | Signal | What changes in the offer |
|---|
| Buôn Ma Thuột, Đắk Lắk | 81 mm | 5 | Watch | Robusta harvest can start. Ask for covered drying on the wet days. |
| Pleiku, Gia Lai | 54 mm | 3 | Positive | Picking and patio drying look workable. |
| Gia Nghĩa, Đắk Nông | 78 mm | 7 | Watch | Same as Đắk Lắk: start, and do not rely on open yards every day. |
| Kon Tum | 58 mm | 3 | Positive | Workable drying window. |
| Đà Lạt, Lâm Đồng | 138 mm | 10 | Negative | Rain on ripe cherry. Tighten the moisture spec and expect slower drying on both arabica and robusta from this province. |
The 14-day roll-up is mixed. It does not change the prompt-cover decision. It changes which origins need a harder drying clause. Lâm Đồng is the one.
October–December — seasonal drying lean
The monthly model leans drier than its own normal at Buôn Ma Thuột, Pleiku, Kon Tum, and Đà Lạt. If that verifies, sun-drying through the main harvest is easier. Gia Nghĩa does not share that lean: only October is clearly dry, so Đắk Nông stays a watch. A drier harvest is a quality and timing signal. It is not a larger crop.
January–March 2027 — flowering watch
The same seasonal run is warmer and a little drier in the flowering window. For the main robusta origins that is a watch, milder than the 2024 flowering drought. Gia Nghĩa and Đà Lạt are the stronger negative reads. The temperature anomaly stays warm for many months, so rainfall is the signal we trust, and the desk reruns this before the next report. In the buying book, this is why part of the February 2027 volume stays open. It is not a reason to cut a tonnage number today.
ECMWF IFS 14-day forecast and SEAS5 seasonal model, via Open-Meteo, run 25 September 2026. ECMWF open data, CC BY 4.0. Drying and flowering signal only.
Buy Now, Wait, or Split the Book
DECISION BLUEPRINT
┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ │
│ [ 1. BUY NOW ] [ 2. WAIT ] [ 3. SOMETHING ELSE ] │
│ Nov–Dec destination Harvest flush is RECOMMENDED: │
│ runs: cover the not a $30 London Prompt spot for the │
│ transit gap only. reason to wait. gap. PTBF for new crop. │
│ │
└────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
1. Buy now
Buy spot when the roaster needs coffee at destination in November or December 2026. New-crop Vietnam will not cover those runs. Keep the volume to the gap. The London nearby price is already far below the August highs, and farm-gate has not fallen with it one-for-one.
2. Wait
Waiting for a November washout to set every shipment assumes farmers sell early cherries into a falling futures market. The 25 September prints do not show that. Waiting also gives away milling time for Screen 18 and for lots that need plot-level coordinates.
3. Split the book
- October–November shipment: fixed price for the volume that must arrive before the new crop.
- December 2026–January 2027 shipment: price-to-be-fixed. Reserve the grade and, where the buyer needs it, the polygon-mapped lot. Leave the ICE leg to be fixed as harvest differentials show themselves.
- From February 2027: add on pullbacks. The January–March flowering watch is the reason to leave some of that book open, not a reason to price a crop loss today.
Forward Curve
| Contract | Level | Versus Nov 2026 robusta | Reading |
|---|
| Robusta Nov 2026 | $3,290 / MT | Baseline | Nearby |
| Robusta Jan 2027 | $3,272 / MT | − $18 / MT | Almost flat |
| Robusta Mar 2027 | $3,260 / MT | − $30 / MT | Mild backwardation |
| Coffee C Dec 2026 | 275.35 ¢/lb | — | Wider prompt premium than London |
| Coffee C Mar 2027 | 267.70 ¢/lb | — | About 7.65 ¢/lb under December |
A flat London curve does not pay the buyer to postpone. The decision is the Vietnam differential, the drying window, and whether the lot is traceable.
Planning Scenarios Through Early 2027
Weights are GreenTech planning weights for this snapshot, not a forecast model. No FOB band is attached, because the export quote was not fixed on 25 September.
| Scenario | Weight | Conditions | Action |
|---|
| Base | 55% | Harvest proceeds with farmer offers still measured. London stays near the current mild backwardation. Traceable lots stay bid. | Fix the physical differential for Dec–Jan shipment. Fix futures in stages through the harvest. |
| Bullish | 20% | Prolonged rain in Lâm Đồng damages early drying, or the flowering watch becomes a real moisture deficit. | Cover more of the first-quarter physical need at a fixed price and reserve Screen 18 capacity. |
| Bearish | 25% | A dry harvest brings steady farmer selling while Brazil’s crop keeps London offered. | Keep prompt cover thin and price later shipments into the harvest. |
Action Plan for Importers
- Date the arrival, then the purchase. A 35–45 day Cape routing means October shipment is a late-November or December arrival.
- Ask for the grade in the offer. FAQ Grade 2 and Screen 18 are different markets. Take the FOB from the offer, not from farm-gate plus a guessed margin.
- Reserve polygon-mapped lots with the new crop if the destination requires them. Do not leave that request until the container is at the yard.
- Specify moisture where the forecast is negative. Đà Lạt’s next 14 days are the negative drying read. Ask for moisture at or below 12.5% and desiccants on winter arrivals.
- Sample before stuffing. Screen, moisture, and cup on a pre-shipment sample.
How GreenTech Supports Importers
GreenTech buys and mills in Lâm Đồng, Đắk Lắk, and Đắk Nông.
- Grades: Grade 2 FAQ, Screen 16 and 18 cleaned, wet polished, color sorted, peaberry, and Arabica Catimor.
- Traceability: plot-level coordinates and satellite checks on mapped supply.
- Contracts: fixed FOB or CIF, and price-to-be-fixed differentials against ICE London.
- Samples: 1–2 kg pre-shipment samples for qualified buyers.
Prepared by GreenTech Research for procurement planning. Levels are indicative and move with the session. Confirm the futures close, the grade, and the freight before contracting. For a live FOB Cat Lai quote: [email protected]
